by Russell A. Vacante, Ph.D.
To
say that there are a number of political-military threatening activities in the
world today that have the potential of endangering the national security of
many Asian nations, especially the Republic of Korea (ROK), does not come as a
surprise to many political observers. These
menacing political-military activities spring up at a time the political,
economic and military resources of the United States are stretched and when U.S.
citizens have a low tolerance for foreign additional military engagements. The American public is close to being
psychologically exhausted from seeing so many of its youth return home from
distant shores in body bags, with missing limbs and other seriously injuries. This disposition is exasperated by the huge
economic strain placed on the wallets and purse strings of
U.S. citizens who see only a questionable return on their
international military investment. This
is a circumstance that some totalitarian regimes recognize and are ready to
exploit. This psychological and economic
strain currently being experienced by the
American public certainly is not going unnoticed by Kim Jong Un and the
military leaders of North Korea. The Kim
regime is an astute observer of American military capabilities and the
U.S. national political climate. They
are also opportunists that will attempt to leverage any
perceived lack of U.S. political will into military gains on the Korean
peninsula. From their ethnocentric
position in world politics they are following socio-political events in the U.S. as a potential means to acquire a tactical military advantage on the Korean
peninsula.
The conflict between Israel and
Hamas fighters over control of the Gaza Stripe has become a daily preoccupation
of the U.S. President, Congress, and many American
citizens. It has Secretary of State Kerry
doing shuttle diplomacy to the Middle East in an attempt to broker a cease-fire
between two archenemies that for centuries, in one way or another, have been at
war with each other. The potential of
this Middle East conflict globally escalating is real, therefore there is a
pressing U.S. government sense urgency to stop the violence and have the two
sides reach some sort of peaceful accord for the sake of all non-citizen
combatants. The longer this conflict continues the higher the potential risk to
U.S. national security. As an allied of
Israel, there are a growing number of folks in the Arab world that view the
U.S. as being partially responsible for the killing and maiming of Gaza Strip
residences and the destruction of their homes by Israel’s
motor shells and bombs. This Arab
perception, legitimate or not, puts the U.S. in direct conflict with much of
the Arab world that may seek retaliation against the U.S. for its support of
Israel. This looming threat to U.S
national security is just one of numerous other Middle East conflicts
stretching the political energy, as well as, the economic resources of the U.S. government and citizens. The relatively sudden and surprising
emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that is currently capturing
and holding large pieces of real estate in Iraq and Syria appears to over take
political priorities the U.S. has concerning the
Gaza Strip.
The
Russian Prime Minster, Vladimir Putin, aggressive designs toward the Ukraine is
another political destabilizing event that the U.S. (with allies) is attempting
to address without getting militarily caught up in a major
conflict that has a potential of resulting in a show down between the world’s
two largest nuclear powers. U.S. and European sanctions, thus far have not acted as a
successful deterrent in quelling the territorial conflict between Ukrainians
and Russian separatist living in Ukraine who are armed and reportedly supported
by the Russian military. Russia’s
military aggression in Ukraine is largely based on Putin’s understanding that
much of Europe is dependent on Russian oil and that
Russia is Europe’s third largest trading partner. Putin sees the U.S. imposed sanctions only as a minor economic irritant while knowing there is much internal economic leverage to be gained
from making the Ukraine a subservient state of Russia. Putin’s move on Ukraine is further fueled by
his ambition to restore his nation to former Soviet Union world power status. If this activity strains U.S. – Russian relations to the point rekindling Cold War
relationship, to the determinant of current cooperative endeavors between the
two counties, Putin seems willing to take this risk. In the event the U.S. cannot, through
diplomatic channels, persuade Putin from “annexing” the
Ukraine, the only remaining course of action may be providing heavy weapons support to the Ukraine. However, Putin—in a similar way to Kim Jong Un --is also reading the preverbal
political and economic tealeaves in the U.S.
He is counting U.S. citizen distain for additional international
military involvement and the U.S.
government preoccupation with the Middle East conflict as a green light
for pressing on with an invasion of the Ukraine.
China’s
growing military is a third global destabilizing force that the U.S. has to prepare
potentially to confront. Similar to Putin’s quest for the recreation of
the Soviet Union, the Chinese government also seems to be looking to the past to shape its future. It may not be an intellectual exaggeration to
suggest that China longs for recapturing its Middle Kingdom status to which its
neighboring countries would once again pay it tribute to China.
China’s
expanding naval activity on the East China Sea, to include laying claim unpopulated
islands govern by Japan, and its growing territorial tensions with Malaysia,
the Philippines, and Viet Nam all seem to indicate Middle Kingdom type
aspirations. Diminishing or eliminating
U.S. naval dominance of the sea is first necessary for China’s hegemony of East
Asia to succeed. The challenge to U.S.
naval dominance comes in the form of roaming trucks equipped DF-21D, 900 mile
range missiles that pose a threat to U.S. aircraft carries. China’s development of an aircraft carrier fleet and the development
reportedly of supersonic submarines that can reach the west coast of the U.S.
in just over two hours is another threat to U.S. naval superiority on the high seas. The rapidly expanding naval resources of China are its attempt to capture control of East China Sea
trading lanes. China’s dominance over
regional sea commerce is threat to U.S. national security interest. Its control of East China Sea lanes would
potentially impose trading restrictions U.S trade with its allies, as well as, potentially interfere with
American-Korean joint military exercises
in the region. More immediate U.S.
concern is that China’s aggressive growing naval activity could accidently, or
intentionally, results in the killing and injuring of American sailors and
marines. Such an incident would mostly likely result in
an U.S. military response that in turn may result in escalating war tensions
between the two nations. Defusing China’s “Middle Kingdom” aspirations is increasing
becoming diplomatic priority of the U.S. State Department and U.S. citizens.
Of
course there are the conflicts in Syria, the menacing political and military
activity of Iran, along with genocide taking place throughout various parts of
Africa that all tend to drain the
energy, attention, and time of U.S. government officials, as well as, U.S.
economic and military resources. As a
world leading power, the U.S. is busily challenged with putting its preverbal fingers in so many Middle
East political dikes in order to help prevent neighboring nations from drowning
in military chaos. The ominous U.S.
political situations mentioned above, Kim Jong Un may believe, has the potential
for creating chaos for the Republic of Korea (ROK).
The
leadership of north Korea may try to seize upon the opportunity to ferment political
and military unrest within the ROK mistakenly thinking that the U.S. resolve to
defense the ROK has been weakened by recent international events. Also, north Korea knowledge of China’s
increased military presence in the region may lead the DPRK to falsely assume
U.S. military defense of the ROK would not occur due to
Chinese intervention. Given the political disposition of north
Korea’s government and the global challenges confronting the U.S. this year,
the chances of north Korea stepping up its political and military campaign
again the ROK has a high probability of increasing. Kim
Jong Un and his military leaders should understand that
the U.S. anticipates what the Pyongyang leadership is thinking and that the U.S. and Korean governments
will not be taken by surprise by any attempts of military aggression
coming from the north.
Aside
from the U.S. anticipating and being prepared for any potential military
aggression from north Korea, let it be known that while the American public through war wryly, is far from
being too preoccupied to come to the defense the ROK, our long standing ally. Our people and cultures are interwoven much so that an
attack on one party is an attack on the other.
Korean
culture has emerged, in recent years, as a major subculture in the U.S. There is respect, feelings of friendship and
admiration among
many Americans for the Korean community living within the U.S. and in the ROK. Korean
and American soldiers fought and died together during the Korean War, the Viet
Nam conflict and at other global hot spots.
Any military intrusion from north Korea that endangers the well being of
one of America’s staunches friend and
ally would not be taken likely. Endemic
to American culture is the willingness of its people to come to the aid of
others, especially when those in danger are endearing friends. There is much economically and politically
more at stake for the ROK and the U.S. now then there was during the 1950-1953
Korean War, so the north should realize that the ROK-US military response to
any military aggression will be of a different kind and intensity.
